The gauge for world
food commodity prices declined for the sixth month in a row in
September, with sharp drops in the quotations for vegetable oils more
than offsetting higher cereal prices, according to a new report released
today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAO). The FAO Food Price Index
averaged 136.3 points in September, down 1.1% from August while
remaining 5.5% higher than its value a year earlier.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price
Index drove the decline, decreasing by 6.6% over the month to
reach its lowest level since February 2021. International quotations for
palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils were all lower. Lingering heavy
inventories of palm oil, coinciding with seasonally rising production in
Southeast Asia, pushed palm oil prices down. Higher soy oil export
availabilities in Argentina, increased sunflower oil supplies from the
Black Sea region and lower crude oil prices also contributed to the drop
in this sub-index.
The FAO Cereal Price Index, by contrast, rose
1.5% from August. International wheat prices rebounded by 2.2%
linked to concerns regarding dry crop conditions in Argentina
and the United States of America, a fast pace of exports from the
European Union amid high internal demand and heightened uncertainty
about the Black Sea Grain Initiative’s continuation beyond November.
World maize prices were mostly stable, as a strong United States dollar
countered pressure from a tighter supply outlook linked to downgraded
production prospects in the United States of America and the European
Union. The FAO All-Rice Price Index rose by 2.2%, largely in
response to export policy changes in India.
The FAO Dairy Price
Index dropped by 0.6% in the month, to a great extent reflecting
the impact of the weaker euro versus the United States dollar, along
with market uncertainties and bleak global economic growth prospects.
The
FAO Meat Price Index declined by 0.5%. World bovine meat prices
fell on high export availabilities from Brazil and elevated
cattle-liquidation in some producing countries, while poultry meat
prices inched down due to subdued import demand. By contrast, world pig
meat prices rose due to a supply shortfall of ready-to-slaughter animals
in the European Union.
The FAO Sugar Price Index was down 0.7 %
during the month of September, mostly related to good production
prospects in Brazil along with lower ethanol prices and currency
movement effects.
Lower forecasts for 2022/23 global cereal output, utilization and trade
FAO today also published the latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief,
which further lowered the global cereal production forecast for 2022,
now pegged at 2 768 million tonnes, 1.7% below the 2021 no.
World coarse grain output is forecast at 1 468 million tonnes,
down 2.8% year-on-year, due largely to adverse crop conditions in
the United States of America. World rice production is forecast at
512.8 million tonnes, down 2.4% from its all-time high reached in
2021, but still an above-average crop. Downward revision to rice output
since September reflect summer dryness and high temperatures in China
and flooding in Pakistan. FAO raised in September its global wheat
production forecast to 787.2 million tonnes, up 1.0% from the
previous year and on track to mark a record high, due to
better-than-expected yields in the European Union and the Russian
Federation.
World cereal utilization over 2022/23 is now
forecast to decline by 0.5% from the previous season to 2 784
million tonnes, with the reduction mostly reflecting reduced feed use.
World
cereal stocks at the close of the 2023 seasons are forecast to contract
by 1.6% below their opening levels, down to 848 million tonnes.
The world cereals stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to 29.7 %
in 2022/23 from 31% in the previous year, still
relatively high from a historical perspective.
World trade in
cereals is predicted to decline by 2.4% in 2022/23 (July/June)
from the preceding marketing season, with foreseen contractions in trade
of all major cereals. Among other factors, the consequences of the war
in Ukraine and the strength of the United States dollar are seen
contributing to this decline.
45 countries need external assistance for food
45
countries around the world, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two
in Latin America and the Caribbean and one in Europe, are in need of
external assistance for food, according to the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, a quarterly publication by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).
Multi-year
droughts have engendered a grave food insecurity situation in East
Africa, with famine expected in parts of Somalia unless humanitarian
assistance is scaled up. High inflation rates, challenging macroeconomic
environments and depreciating currencies are aggravating food
insecurity conditions in low-income food deficit countries.
The report also forecasts that cereal production in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) in 2022 will decline by 0.4% from 2021.
Posts
0 Comments